The third-quarter financials didn't excite market watchers. But equity investors can still make money if they invest in the right stocks.
From the Sensex pack, Infosys jumped the most by 3.67 per cent. Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank, Wipro, NTPC, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv and Larsen & Toubro were among the other major gainers. State Bank of India, Bajaj Finance, Titan, Tata Steel, Tata Motors and UltraTech Cement were among the laggards.
JSW Steel (3.37 per cent), Tata Steel (3.33 per cent), Maruti (3.24 per cent), Power Grid (3.07 per cent), IndusInd Bank (2.95 per cent), Bajaj Finance (2.12 per cent) and Tech Mahindra (2.22 per cent) were among major gainers. On the other hand, Ultratech Cement, Sun Pharma, Nestle and L&T were the losers.
As temperatures soar across the country, amid searing heat wave, analysts see power demand hitting fresh record highs this year. The time, therefore, may be opportune to add related stocks on dips as higher demand boosts earnings visibility, they said. On April 18, India's electricity demand touched a new high of 216 gigawatts.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
Eleven companies have launched their initial public offerings (IPOs) in December 2023, making this month the second-best December for public offerings since 1996. Collectively, they are raising Rs 8,182.7 crore this month. In December 2021, 11 companies raised Rs 9,534 crore. However, excluding December 2021, this month marks the best December for IPOs since 1996.
Even as banks and finance companies are reporting record-high earnings, their weighting in the benchmark National Stock Exchange Nifty50 Index has seen a downward trajectory. Investors expect a stronger performance from other sectors in the new year. Currently, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) companies collectively hold a weighting of 34.5 per cent, down from 36.7 per cent at the end of December 2022 and a record high of 40.6 per cent at the end of December 2019. This represents the sector's lowest weighting in the index since December 2021 when it stood at 33.7 per cent.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the decision to tweak policy rates was not in his hand as he himself is driven by the situation on the ground. In April, the Reserve Bank in a surprise move hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent. Prior to it, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was on a rate hiking spree, raising the repo rate by 250 basis points since May 2022.
Capital goods companies in their Q2FY24 results are expected to report another steady quarter of earnings growth as order inflows and execution remain healthy, according to analysts. An upward revision in order inflow targets and a margin improvement due to lower raw material costs are also anticipated. "We expect the execution of all capital goods companies and most EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) companies to remain healthy Y-o-Y (year-on-year), led by strong order book accretion in the past 5-6 quarters," wrote analysts at Kotak Securities in a note, estimating revenue growth of 32 per cent for India's largest company in the capital goods space -- Larsen & Toubro.
UPL, the country's largest agrochemical company, had a weak July-September quarter (Q2), reporting a sharp fall in revenues across geographies. Overall, the revenues were down 19 per cent on the back of lower agrochemical prices and inventory destocking. While the overall volumes were down 7 per cent, prices fell by 15 per cent. Volume decline in the European market was on the back of high channel inventory and product bans while in India the fall by 27 per cent was on account of muted demand for segments such as cotton and pulses.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
Despite the best ever quarterly net profit of Rs 3,091 crore during April-June of financial year 2023-24 (Q1FY24), challenges are mounting for InterGlobe Aviation-run IndiGo in the near term, said analysts. Given this, most brokerages have retained their ratings from 'buy to underperform', as well as their target price for the stock. For instance, Motilal Oswal Financial Services has retained its 'neutral' rating on the scrip as it believes the low-cost airline is facing teething issues at present.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
Rising crude oil prices, traction in China equities and inflation concerns back home are casting a shadow on the Indian equity markets in the short term, believe analysts at Jefferies. They said this could see the markets remaining range-bound in the near term before the next leg up.
Mutual funds (MFs) have lined up information technology (IT) funds, indicating that technology stocks are back on fund managers' radar after a hiatus. Over the past 18 months, stock prices for companies in the software space have either corrected or remained subdued. Fund houses have launched five IT-based sectoral funds in the past three months, with three of them taking the passive route.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday raised India's economic growth estimate for 2023 to 5.5 per cent from 4.8 per cent pegged earlier, on the back of a sharp increase in capital expenditure in the Budget and a resilient economic momentum. It however revised downwards India's growth estimate for 2022 to 6.8 per cent from 7 per cent pegged in November last year. In its February update to Global Macro Outlook 2023-24, Moody's raised the baseline 2023 real growth projections "meaningfully" for several G20 economies, including the US, Canada, the Euro area, India, Russia, Mexico, and Turkiye, accounting for a stronger end to 2022.
The Street shrugged off a muted first quarter of financial year 2023-24 (Q1FY24) and a cautious near-term outlook by India's largest information technology (IT) services company, Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The stock was the top Nifty50 and Sensex gainer on Thursday, rising 2.5 per cent, as investors took comfort from a robust order book and an encouraging pipeline. Like its larger peer, HCL Technologies' (HCL Tech), too fell short of the Street's expectations on the revenue and margin fronts given cuts in discretionary expenditure.
Notwithstanding the robust turnaround in the financial performance for the June quarter (Q1FY24), stocks of state-run oil marketing companies have been in a downtrend in the last month. The fall comes on a rise in crude oil prices that have surged to a 7-month high of $88 a barrel. A busy political calendar in the months ahead that may see the government keep a lid on auto fuel prices is also a dampener, analysts said. Shares of Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) and Indian Oil (IOC) have shed 9-11 per cent since their respective earnings announcement between July 26 to August 4.
'India has always been a bottom-up stock-picking market, and as growth recovers with higher liquidity, mid and small-caps always tend to outperform.'
Indian equity markets have a limited upside potential in the near-term as they negotiate the ensuing cyclical slowdown, wrote analysts at Nomura in a recent coauthored report led by Saion Mukherjee, their managing director and head of equity research for India. He, however, believes that the foundations are in place for sustainable growth over the medium-to-long term, and hence suggests a 'buy on dips' strategy to equity investors. As an investment strategy, Nomura prefers domestic-oriented sectors and companies over exporters, and prefers stocks that provide valuation comfort. Industrials and banks are their overweight sectors, while IT services and consumer discretionary are their underweight sectors.
Wholesale price inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth month in a row in July at (-)1.36 per cent, even though prices of food items, especially vegetables, skyrocketed. The inflation, however, has inched up from (-)4.12 per cent recorded in June fuelled by 62.12 per cent rise in vegetable prices. In July last year, wholesale price index (WPI) was 14.07 per cent.
The sharp correction in the Indian markets from their peak levels has made valuations attractive, say analysts, who advise buying selectively, but only from a long-term perspective. Fifty-six of the Nifty 100 stocks, according to Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies, now trade below the 10-year historical averages, including stocks in financial, select auto, and pharma sectors. "Valuation (one-year forward consensus price-to-earnings, PE) has declined 25 per cent from October 2021 peak, almost matching the 33 per cent price-earnings contraction during the 2011 tightening cycle when repo rates went up by 375 basis points (bps) versus 250 bps this cycle.
The embattled Adani Group on Monday attempted to calm the market as a rout in its shares continued, saying its growth plans are intact, business plans are fully funded and it remains confident of delivering returns to shareholders. Market value of the group's seven listed companies has halved since a January 24 report by US-based short-seller Hindenburg Research alleged that Adani pulled "the largest con in corporate history" using offshore tax havens and stock manipulation. The Group has denied all allegations, calling them "malicious", "baseless" and a "calculated attack on India".
Indian economy is projected to grow 7.1-7.6 per cent in the current financial year despite shifting geopolitical realities across the world, a report said on Wednesday. In its India's economic outlook - July 2022 report, leading consultancy Deloitte India said that as 2021 was coming to a close, there was optimism in the air but the optimism received a jolt early this year as a wave of Omicron infections swept through the country and Russia's invasion of Ukraine happened in February. "These events aggravated the pre-existing challenges such as surging inflation, supply shortages, and shifting geopolitical realities across the world with no definite end in sight.
Since their highs in September, chemical stocks have underperformed the benchmarks and broader indices over the past month with larger players witnessing a 9-22 per cent fall during this period. Expectations of weak September quarter results amid high inventory, demand woes and weak realisations have led to the underperformance.
'We like certain stocks from banking, insurance, retail, hospitals and capital goods.' 'Though some of these stocks may seem expensive, they will compound well over the long term, thus justifying their current multiples.'
Enthused by higher than expected GDP numbers in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday said India's economic growth may exceed the initial estimate of 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal and the country can look for another year of solid economic performance.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday kept its forecast for India's economic growth unchanged at 6 per cent in the fiscal year starting April 1, before rising to 6.9 per cent in the following year. In the quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific, S&P saw inflation rate easing to 5 per cent in 2023-24 fiscal, from 6.8 per cent in the current financial year. It saw India's gross domestic product (GDP) likely growing by 7 per cent in the current financial year ending March 31 (2022-23), before slowing to 6 per cent in the next 2023-24 fiscal.
'There is no reason why we should break this business up.'
Private equity and venture capital funds' investment in the country continued to fall in May, with the overall values declining by nearly 44 per cent to $3.5 billion, a report said on Monday. The dedicated funds had invested $6.2 billion in May 2022 and $7.4 billion in the preceding month of April 2023, representing a dip of 44 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively, as per the report by industry lobby IVCA and consultancy firm EY. "Despite a recovery of sorts being seen in tech sector indices and some of the large global tech names, sentiment in India for tech sector investments has been lacklustre, and fundraising by Indian startups has been sluggish," the firm's partner Vivek Soni said.
The country's largest software company Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) on Wednesday said its net profit increased 8.7 per cent year-on-year to Rs 11,342 crore in the September 2023 quarter. The Tata Group flagship had reported a net profit of Rs 10,431 crore in the year-ago period.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
Fitch Ratings on Tuesday retained India's economic growth forecast at 7 per cent for the current fiscal, but cut projections for the next two financial years saying the country is not impervious to global developments. In its December edition of the Global Economic Outlook, Fitch projected India's GDP to grow at 7 per cent in the current fiscal, at a slower rate of 6.2 per cent in 2023-24 and at 6.9 per cent in 2024-25. In September, Fitch projected 7 per cent growth for the current fiscal, followed by 6.7 per cent in 2023-24 and 7.1 per cent growth in 2024-25.
Indian airline industry is expecting to prune its net losses to Rs 3,000-5,000 crore in this fiscal from an estimated Rs 17,000-17,500 crore in FY2023 on the back of improved yields and stable cost environment, credit ratings agency ICRA said on Tuesday. At the same time, ICRA also estimated that domestic air passenger traffic will expand by 8-13 per cent each in FY2024 and FY2025. The rating agency has also maintained its stable outlook on the industry in view of healthy passenger traffic growth, improved yields and a stable cost environment.
The global turmoil in the banking sector has made analysts cautious, who advise that investors stay away from stocks of this sector till the overall sentiment improves. The recent trouble for the banking sector started with the collapse of US-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Capital and Signature Bank. On its part, Moody's Investors Service has also cut its outlook for the US banking system to 'negative' from 'stable', citing the run on deposits at these three banks that led to the collapse of these banking majors in less than a week.
Stocks of gold jewellery retailers have been able to retain their sheen in 2023 despite volatile gold prices. Kalyan Jewellers, Titan, PC Jewellers, Thangamayil Jewellery, and Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri (TBZ) have rallied 21-72 per cent so far since April as compared to a 13 per cent gain in the benchmark Sensex index. The rally gained steam on the back of gold's 6 per cen
The impact of the banking crisis in the US was visible in IT bellwether Tata Consultancy Services' (TCS) weak performance in the March quarter of fiscal 2023 (Q4FY23). The firm witnessed slower revenue growth in Q4FY23 and failed to meet its FY23 exit Ebit margin of 25 per cent as some clients, especially in the North American region, took to pausing projects and rising onsite costs offset utilisation gains. Sequentially, the company's revenue grew by just 0.6 per cent on a constant currency basis, which was one of the slowest paces in over 11 quarters.
Hindalco's first quarter (Q1FY23) results indicate healthy domestic volumes for aluminium and copper, and lower cost of production. Subsidiary Novelis saw weak volume trends but it managed to push operating profit margins on a better mix and pricing hikes. The weak global outlook on aluminium is a cause for ongoing concern.
